British newspaper: Heavy losses may cause Russia to lose the `golden opportunity` to overwhelm Ukraine 0
(Dan Tri) – Newsweek reported that Russian forces have the opportunity to advance west in the coming weeks, but they are unlikely to take advantage of the short opportunity to gain more territory from Ukraine.
The fighting in Ukraine at Avdiivka is taking place extremely fiercely (Illustration photo: CinCAFU).
On January 11, the UK Ministry of Defense said that Ukraine is experiencing a period of cold weather that could last for several weeks.
Frozen ground made the use of tanks and armored vehicles in combat operations much easier than in muddy and rainy conditions.
`Cold weather doesn’t really make you happier,` Ukraine’s Major Viktor Tregubov told Newsweek in October as rain and mud set in for the fall.
Despite Russia’s recent advances in some frontline areas, Moscow may not be able to take advantage of more favorable weather conditions before the ice melts in March, experts say.
In late December, after Ukrainian forces were driven out of the city of Marinka and retreated southwest of besieged Avdiivka, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the capture of the area
Moscow will only be able to take advantage of its gains if `Russian forces have significantly improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanized forward raids, which they have shown no signs of doing.`
The same principle applies to the short period when more favorable winter weather conditions are occurring across Ukraine.
According to Frederik Mertens, an analyst with the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, Russia could attack Ukraine’s front lines and there have been some rumors of large-scale attacks taking place.
Ed Arnold, a researcher at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), added: The intelligence published by the UK Ministry of Defense is accurate, but both Russia and Ukraine are
He told Newsweek that it is unlikely there will be much active activity along the front line during this period, as Moscow and Kiev are focused on rebuilding their forces.
The problems weighing on Russian forces will be similar to those of Ukraine.
`Snow and frost will significantly affect fighting in the near future,` Dmytro Lazutkin, a spokesman for Ukraine’s 47th independent mechanized infantry brigade, told Newsweek.
The 47th Brigade is fighting around besieged Avdiivka, where the heaviest fighting has taken place so far this year.
Mr. Lazutkin said that snow will limit the movement of vehicles, especially for wheeled vehicles and off-road vehicles.
Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for Ukraine’s Tavria forces defending Avdiivka, told Newsweek that it is difficult to predict the impact of upcoming weather conditions.
Researcher Mertens said Ukraine will likely take advantage of the colder months to rebuild and train its mobile forces ahead of inevitable summer fighting.
`It looks like the Ukrainians may be better prepared for winter, but I think they will refrain from large operations,` he said.
